Modeling California policy impacts on greenhouse gas emissions

This paper examines policy and technology scenarios in California, emphasizing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2020 and 2030. Using CALGAPS, a new, validated model simulating GHG and criteria pollutant emissions in California from 2010 to 2050, four scenarios were developed: Committed Policies (S1), Uncommitted Policies (S2), Potential Policy and Technology Futures (S3), and Counterfactual (S0), which omits all GHG policies. Forty-nine individual policies were represented. For S1–S3, GHG emissions fall below the AB 32 policy 2020 target [427 million metric tons CO2 equivalent (MtCO2e) yr ], indicating that committed policies may be sufficient to meet mandated reductions. In 2030, emissions span 211–428 MtCO2e yr , suggesting that policy choices made today can strongly affect outcomes over the next two decades. Long-term (2050) emissions were all well above the target set by Executive Order S-305 (85 MtCO2e yr ); additional policies or technology development (beyond the study scope) are likely needed to achieve this objective. Cumulative emissions suggest a different outcome, however: due to early emissions reductions, S3 achieves lower cumulative emissions in 2050 than a pathway that linearly reduces emissions between 2020 and 2050 policy targets. Sensitivity analysis provided quantification of individual policy GHG emissions reduction benefits. & 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. alifornia Assembly Bill; CALalysis of Policies Spreadsheet; Energy Commission; CHP, tilities Commission; CCS, CO2 anol/15% gasoline blended California Executive Order; 2e, billion metric tons CO2 avy-duty vehicle; HFC, hyeport; LBNL, Lawrence Berndard (EO S-01-07); LDV, to 0.425 km per liter); U.S. National Highway Traffic cil; PV, photovoltaic; RPS, ents); SB, California Senate P, CARB (2008) Scoping Plan 1.609 vehicle km travelled);